February 06, 2008 02:29 AM EST I suspect Carl Bernstein and the rest of the network and cable commentators will continue to insist, Probably till Senator Clinton is standing at the podium in Denver accepting the nomination. That Senator Obama’s Charisma and the “movement of change” will carry him to victory.

Spin it all you like, the numbers tell the tale. She has won more delegates and more of the popular vote then her challenger thus far.

Politics is not a sport where the second place finisher shares a gold medal simply because he or she got almost as many votes as the winner and the media likes you better. It is ludicrous for the Obama camp to declare they won super Tuesday or its a tie because Hillary didn’t win by a large enough margin.

I have little doubt come the morning Senator Obama and the media will claim the race for the nomination is still wide open. In any other primary campaign, waking up the morning after super Tuesday with more then a hundred and thirty less delegates. Would inspire consideration toward stepping aside, All the more this time because so many states moved up the vote.

The Senator from Illinois will need to win all the remaining primary races by a two third margin or better to obtain the necessary delegates to arrive in Denver with the nomination locked up.

Yes its statistically possible but it would require Hillary lose all the undecided and a goodly portion of those who actively support her now. Even If I grant you every single last undecided democrat between now and August will vote for Obama and I do not. 

He would still come up short unless thousands of those standing on the street corners and making calls today convert to his cause, and that ain’t going to happen no matter how much you wish it.

Its going to be a convention where those unseated delegates from Florida and Michigan decide the nominee. Read the rules once the convention starts, the party leaders the ones that support her will decide if those delegates should be recognised and seated if neither candidate has enough to claim victory.

That’s why she wasted time and resources on the “beauty” contest in Florida and Michigan, its what separates the experienced leader from the novice, its why she will make the better President. 

At least that’s my view, yours may be different.