by Craig Dimitri

Still too close to call, in the Pa. 8th CD… An independent poll, Majority Watch, released a poll on Monday, Oct. 30, showing Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy leading GOP incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick by a 50%-47% margin, with a 3.1% margin of error.

The MajorityWatch poll was conducted from October 24-26 by two independent pollsters, RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics.  The poll had a 3.1% margin-of-error, and consisted of 994 respondents.

The silver lining for Fitzpatrick is that his own supporters are – to a slight degree – both more motivated to vote and more firmly committed to him.  MajorityWatch offers a unique “Voter Motivation Index” (VMI).  According to the poll, 8th CD self-identified Republicans and independents are more likely to cast ballots than Democrats.  In addition, the breakdown of voters is as follows:

Strong for Murphy 39% – Weak for Murphy 12% – Strong for Fitzpatrick 37% – Weak for Fitzpatrick 9% – Undecided 3%

Nonetheless, the fact that this independent, credible poll shows Murphy with a 3% advantage (and even if not ahead, in a statistical tie, at worst) is more dismal news for Pennsylvania Republicans.  Gov. Ed Rendell (D), who appeared with Murphy (www.murphy06.com) in Langhorne, Pa., on Monday, is going to cruise to an easy re-election over GOP challenger Lynn Swann.  Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr. is poised to defeat beleaguered incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum (R).  Fitzpatrick (www.fitzpatrickforcongress.com) will receive no help from the top of the GOP ticket, and must continue to persuade his GOP constituents to stay with him, as he did in 2004. 

The full results of the MajorityWatch poll can be found at http://www.constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/index2.php

Questions?  Comments?  Information?  You can contact Craig Dimitri at cdimitri1@yahoo.com. 

 

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