Gujarat went to polls in the second phase today with the Election Commission reporting 63 to 65% polling. While we await the exit polls from CNN-IBN, NDTV, Star News here is some analysis from Offstumped. A few readers have made the mistake of reading this analysis as providing accurate tallies. The analysis here is more about understanding the battleground and the likely scenarios that may emerge. The seat by seat analysis provides a basis to speculate on the most probable and least probable scenarios. None of this means an absolute majority for the BJP is impossible or a Congress victory is impossible. All the analysis tells us is how likely these scenarios are and what it will take for them to come about on 23rd December when the votes are counted. 

Summary of 2nd phase predictions

BJP assured seats – 36

Congress assured seats – 8

Tossups (seats with margins less than 3%) – 16

Unpredictable (seats which have flip flopped with wide or decisive margins, incumbents are not in fray) – 38 seats

Of the 38 unpredictable seats congress bastions that fell to bjp in 2002 for the first time – 14

Rest of the 24 unpredictable seats have flip flopped between the Congress and the BJP

Likely Scenarios in second phase

For the Congress the optimistic scenario would be to win back all 14 of its bastions while keeping all of its assured seats while hoping that half of the tossups and the remaining flip-flops go its way to take its second phase tally to 42.

For the BJP the optimistic scenario would be to keep all 36 of its assured seats while taking atleast half of the tossups and half of the unpredictable seats to take its second phase tally to 55.

Overall projections (Phase 1 + Phase 2)

BJP assured seats – 70

Congress assured seats – 24

Tossups – 39

Unpredictable – 52

Likely Scenarios overall

For the Congress the optimistic scenario is between 81 and 97 seats. This could put it right there near the half way mark but for this to happen it has to win almost all close battles while reversing decisive or massive margins in as many as 25 of the unpredictable seats.

For the BJP on the other hand it has to buck 3rd term or 4th term incumbency in as many as 70 seats while winning merely 20 odd seats out of the tossups and the unpredictable seats to get past the half way mark. To win an absolute majority however it needs to win more than half of the tossups and the flip-flops.

The most likely scenario is the BJP returning to power while barely crossing the half way mark, a better performance would imply breaking many precedents.

Detailed seat by seat predictions for Phase two

59 DHANDHUKA GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, margins narrowed last election, congress has given this to NCP,should stay with BJP
60 DHOLKA GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped from congress to BJP with a battleground in 2002 less than 1% margin, JD-U and BSP are contesting this seat, this is a tossup
61 BAVLA SC – high turnouts, flip flopped from congress to BJP with a wide margin in 2002, both incumbents are in fray this time, this one is unpredictable
62 MANDAL GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, turned battleground in 2002 with less than 1% margin, this is a tossup
63 VIRAMGAM GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, flip flopped to congress and back to BJP in 2002, battleground seat with 2% margin, with none of the incumbents in fray this one is unpredictable
64 SARKHEJ GEN – low turnouts, reliable BJP seat, Amit Shah’s pocket borough, BJP has won with wide margins, will stay BJP
65 DASKROI GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, BJP has won with wide margins, stay BJP
66 DEHGAM GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, went congress in 2002 with less than 3% margin, this one is a tossup
67 SABARMATI GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, BJP has won with wide margins, none of the incumbents are in fray, this one should stay BJP
68 ELLIS BRIDGE GEN – low to moderate to turnouts, reliable BJP seat, Haren Pandya’s pocket borough in the past, BJP has won with 50% margins, should stay BJP
69 DARIAPUR-KAZIPUR GEN – moderate turnouts, reliable BJP seat, BJP has won with wide margins, should remain BJP
70 SHAHPUR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, battleground in 2002 with less than 3% margin, both congress and BSP have fielded Muslim candidates, this one is a tossup likely BJP
71 KALUPUR GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, went congress last 2 elections, Muslim incumbent won with wide margin in 2002 but tossup in the election before, more muslim challengers from BSP and others this time, this one is unpredictable
72 ASARWA GEN – moderate turnouts, reliable BJP seat, won with wide margins, should stay BJP
73 RAKHIAL GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, won with wide margins, Gordhan zadphadia’s pocket borough, with none of the incumbents in fray and zadphadia’s rebellion this one is unpredictable but the seat also has 4 muslims in the fray likely stay BJP
74 SHAHER KOTDA SC – moderate turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, flip flopped to congress and back to BJP in 2002, battleground seat with less than 3% margin, tossup
75 KHADIA GEN – ashok bhatt’s pocket borough will stay BJP
76 JAMALPUR GEN – moderate to high turnouts, BJP has never won here, incumbent muslim strongman not contesting, this one is unpredictable
77 MANINAGAR GEN – Narendra Modi’s seat will stay BJP
78 NARODA GEN – low turnouts, reliable BJP seat, won with 50% margins, will stay BJP
79 GANDHINAGAR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, went congress in 2002 with a wide margin, this one is unpredictable
80 KALOL GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, flip flopped to congress before reverting to BJP in 2002, BJP has not fielded the incumbent, this one is unpredictable
81 KADI GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, went congress in 2002, BSp has a muslim candidate, this one is unpredictable
82 JOTANA SC – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, won with wide margins, bjp incumbent has rebelled contesting as an independent, this one is unpredictable
83 MEHSANA GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, won with wide margins, stay BJP
84 MANSA GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, battleground seat with less than 2% margin, this one is a tossup
85 VIJAPUR GEN – very high turnouts, flip flopped between BJP and congress, consistently voted out incumbents, this one is unpredictable
86 VISNAGAR GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, won with wide margin in 2002 but battleground in previous elections, with none of the incumbents in fray this one will likely stay BJP unless the turnout is low
87 KHERALU GEN – very high turnouts, reliable congress seat in the past, went BJP in 2002 with a wide margin, BJP incumbent has defected to congress, this one is unpredictable
88 UNJHA GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with 40% margin, stay BJP
89 SIDHPUR GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, went congress in 2002 with wide margin, this one is unpredictable
90 VAGDOD GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped between congress and BJP with less than 2% margins, went decisively for congress in 2002, this one is unpredictable likely stay Congress
91 PATAN GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, battleground in 2002 with 3% margin, this is a tossup
92 CHANASMA GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, went congress in 2002 with a wide margin, this one is unpredictable likely stay congress
93 SAMI GEN – hight turnouts, favored BJP last 2 elections with wide margins, will likely stay BJP
94 RADHANPUR GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP last 2 elections with wide margins, will likely stay BJP
95 VAV GEN – very high turnouts, Congress pocket borough, BJP has never won this seat, likely stay congress
96 DEODAR GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP in the past with wide margins, went independent with wide margin in 2002, with none of the incumbents in fray this one is unpredictable
97 KANKREJ GEN – very high turnouts, flip flopped between BJP and congress, battleground in 2002 with less than 2% margin, tossup
98 DEESA GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, went congress in 2002 with 1% margin, tossup
99 DHANERA GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP last 2 elections, battlegground in 2002 with 2% margin, this is another tossup
100 PALANPUR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, none of the incumbents are in fray, should remain BJP
101 VADGAM SC – high turnouts, favored congress last 2 elections, wide margin in 2002, should stay congress
102 DANTA GEN – very high turnouts, favored congress last 2 elections with wide margin, should stay congress
103 KHEDBRAHMA ST  – high turnouts, reliable congress seat in the past, went bjp in 2002 with less than 1% margin, tossup
104 IDAR SC – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, wide margins, should stay BJP
105 BHILODA GEN – high turnouts, favored non-BJP candidates last 2 elections, with none of the incumbents in fray this is unpredictable
106 HIMATNAGAR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, wide margins, none of the incumbents are in fray, should stay BJP
107 PRANTIJ GEN – high turnouts,reliable BJP seat, wide margins, bjp incumbent not contesting, will likely stay BJP
108 MODASA GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, wide margins, stay BJP
109 BAYAD GEN – very high turnouts, flip flopped bjp and congress, battleground seat with 2% margin in 2002, tossup
110 MEGHRAJ GEN – high turnouts, reliable bjp seat in the past, flipped to the congress before reverting back to bjp in 2002 with a wide margin, was a tossup in the past, this one is unpredictable likely BJP
111 SANTRAMPUR GEN – high turnouts, reliable congress seat in the past, flipped to the BJP in 2002 with a wide margin, congress incumbent is running as an independent, bjp incumbent is not in the fray, this one is unpredictable likely BJP
112 JHALOD ST – low to very high turnouts, reliable congress seat in the past, flipped to the BJP in 2002 with a wide margin, this one is unpredictable likely BJP
113 LIMDI ST – low to high turnouts, favored congress in the past, flipped to BJP in 2002 with a wide margin, this one is unpredictable likely congress
114 DOHAD ST – low to moderate turnouts, favored bjp in the past, flipped to the congress before reverting back to bjp in 2002 with a decisive margin, long time bjp incumbent running as independent, this seat is unpredictable
115 LIMKHEDA ST – low to high turnouts, flip flopped, went bjp decisively in 2002, this one is unpredictable likely bjp
116 DEVGADH BARIA GEN – low to very high turnouts, flip flopped, went bjp decisively in 2002, bjp incumbent is not running, this one is unpredictable
117 RAJGADH GEN – low to very high turnouts, flip flopped, went massively bjp in 2002 wiping out congress with 50% margin, congress has given this to NCP, this will likely stay BJP
118 HALOL GEN – low to very high turnouts, reliably congress seat went BJP in 2002 with a massive margin of 45%, this one is unpredictable likely BJP
119 KALOL GEN – low to high turnouts, reliable bjp seat, massive margin in 2002 of 50%. incumbents not in the fray, should stay BJP
120 GODHRA GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP, incumbent and infamous haresh bhatt not running, kalo mla has been given the ticket, bsp has a muslim candidate, bjp’s margin in 2002 was just 10%, but congress has not won here since 1985, likely stay BJP
121 SHEHRA GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped, went BJP in 2002 with a massive margin of 47%, unpredictable likely bjp
122 LUNAVADA GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped, went bjp with a decisive 33% margin, this one is unpredictable likely bjp
123 RANDHIKPUR ST – hight turnouts, reliable bjp seat, wide margin in 2002, stay bjp
124 BALASINOR GEN – high turnouts, reliable bjp seat, narrow margin in 2002 bjp incumbent rebelled running on BJS ticket, this one is unpredictable
125 KAPADVANJ GEN – high turnouts, reliable bjp seat, battleground in 2002 with 2% margin, tossup
126 THASRA GEN – high turnouts, bjp had never won here till 2002, went bjp with a decisive margin, bsp has a muslim candidate, this one is unpredictable likely bjp
127 UMRETH GEN – high turnouts, bjp had never won here till 2002, went bjp with a decisive margin, unpredictable likely bjp
128 KATHLAL GEN – high turnouts, bjp has never won here, went congress decisively in 2002, stay congress
129 MEHMEDABAD GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable bjp seat with decisive margins, stay bjp
130 MAHUDHA GEN – high turnouts, congress bastion, bjp has never won, margins have narrowed but will likely stay congress
131 NADIAD GEN – high turnouts, dinsha patel’s old seat, favored bjp last 2 elections with decisive margins, stay bjp
132 CHAKALASI GEN – very high turnouts, congress bastion, bjp has never won here, stay congress
133 ANAND GEN – high turnouts, reliable bjp seat, wide margins, bjp incumbent running as independent, unpredictable
134 SARSA GEN – very high turnouts, reliable congress seat, bjp had never won here before, battleground in 2002 with less than 1% margin, congress incumbent is running as an independent, tossup likely bjp
135 PETLAD GEN – high turnouts, bjp had never won here before 2002, went bjp with decisive margin, incumbent not in the fray, unpredictable
136 SOJITRA SC – high turnouts, favored bjp in the past, flipped to congress before reverting to bjp, decisive margin in 2002, likely stay BJP
137 MATAR GEN – high turnouts, reliable congress seat until 2002, bjp won with narrow margin, neither incumbent running, unpredictable
138 BORSAD GEN – high turnouts, madhavsingh solanki’s bastion, stay congress
139 BHADRAN GEN – high turnouts, another congress bastion, stay congress
140 CAMBAY GEN – high turnouts, reliable bjp seat, narrow margins though, should stay bjp
141 CHHOTA UDAIPUR ST – low to high turnouts, reliable congress seat till 2002, went bjp with a massive margin, incumbent not running, unpredictable
142 JETPUR GEN – high turnouts, favored congress in the past, bjp won first time in 2002 with decisive margin, incumbent not runnng, unpredictable
143 NASVADI ST – high turnouts, favored congress in the past, bjp won first time in 2002 with decisive margin, incumbent not running, unpredictable
144 SANKHEDA ST – high turnouts, favored congress in the past, bjp won first time in 2002, massive margin, incumbent not running, unpredictable
145 DABHOI GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped, went bjp in 2002 with decisive margin, incumbent not running,unpredictable
146 SAVLI GEN – high turnouts, favored congress in the past, bjp won first time in 2002, decisive margin, incumbent not running, unpredictable
147 BARODA CITY GEN – high turnouts, reliable bjp seat, massive margins, stay bjp
148 SAYAJIGANJ GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable bjp seat, massive margins, stay bjp
149 RAOPURA GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable bjp seat. massive margin of 50%, stay bjp
150 VAGHODIA GEN – high to very high turnouts, madhu shrivastav’s of best bakery infame pocket borough, won in 2002 with 30% margin, should stay bjp
151 BARODA RURAL GEN – high turnouts, favored bjp last 2 elections, massive margin of 30%, incumbents not in the fray, likely stay bjp
152 PADRA GEN – very high turnouts, favored bjp with decisive margins, incumbents not in fray, should stay bjp
153 KARJAN SC – high turnouts, reliable congress seat, bjp won for the first time in 2002 with decisive margin, stay bjp

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Originally posted here

http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2007/12/16/gujarat-polls-2007-phase-2-offstumped-predictions/

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