With the election commission project 60 to 69% voter turnout in the first phase it is time to gaze the crystal ball. One would have expected a fairly homogenous state like Gujarat to yield common trends across the exit polls but it appears that there is a split opinion. While usual suspects CNN-IBN and NDTV are giving a Modi losing ground and close contest spin, the Star News AC Neilsen poll shows a comfortable position for the BJP.

Offstumped has come up with some analysis of its own, take it with a pinch of salt while we cross fingers for the next phase.

Summary of predictions

BJP assured – 34

Congress assured – 16

Tossups (seats with less than 3% margin) – 23

Unpredictable (seats with no incumbents in fray or a history of flip-flopping) – 14

If Congress keeps all its assured seats wins all the tossups it can go as high as 40 seats and even if half of the unpredictable seats going its way you are looking at a high of only 47 seats. The BJP on the other hand if it keeps all its assured seats and even if it wins half the tossups and half the unpredictable seats will likely go as high as 52 seats. Those would be the most optimistic scenarios for the two parties.

Detailed Predictions seat by seat

1 ABDASA GEN – Historically high turnouts, traditional congress seat, congress has fielded rebel BJP incumbent but the BSP has fielded a muslim candidate, BJP might scrape through

2 MANDVI GEN – historically high turnouts, battleground seat in 2002 BJP’s Suresh Mehta lost by

3 BHUJ GEN – historically high turnouts, battleground seat in 2002 BJP lost by 2% margin, tossup

4 MUNDRA SC – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins neutral to turnouts, highest voter turnout reported in 2007, BJP rebel defected to congress, will likely remain BJP

5 ANJAR GEN – moderate turnouts, BJP lost to congress with 3% margin, congress incumbent has switched to BJP, will likely be a tossup

6 RAPAR GEN – moderate to high turnouts, BJP lost with 4% margin in 2002, congress may retain seat

7 DASADA SC – very high turnouts historically, battleground seat in 2002, BJP lost by less than 1% margin, tossup

8 WADHWAN GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, neutral to turnouts, BJP incumbent contesting as independent, will likely remain BJP with reduced margin

9 LIMBDI GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP in the past, flipped to the congress in 2002 with decisive margin, will likely stay congress

10 CHOTILA GEN – Congress stronghold, BJP has never won this seat polling low 18% vote share, will likely go to congress

11 HALVAD GEN – very high turnouts, reliably BJP with 3 to 5% margins, will likely remain BJP

12 DHRANGADHRA GEN – very high turnouts, battleground seat which has gone BJP last 3 times with less than 2% margins, tossup likely BJP

13 MORVI GEN – moderately high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002 with less than 2% margin, tossup

14 TANKARA GEN – very high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP

15 WANKANER GEN – high turnouts, muslim candidates from congress won in the past, went BJP in 2002 with a wide margin, unpredictable

16 JASDAN GEN – reliably congress, BJP has never won this seat, stay congress

17 RAJKOT-I GEN – moderate turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, no incumbents in fray, likely stay BJP

18 RAJKOT-II GEN – reliably BJP with wide margins, Vajubhai Vala’s seat, will stay BJP

19 RAJKOT RURAL SC – low to moderate turnouts, BJP margin reducing over the years, no incumbents in fray, a high turnout could mean a Congress upset

20 GONDAL GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP

21 JETPUR GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP neutral to turnouts, stay BJP

22 DHORAJI GEN – high turnouts, congress incumbent’s pocket borough, stay Congress

23 UPLETA GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP, was a battleground seat in  the past, went decisively to BJP in 2002, BSP has put up a muslim candidate, will likely stay BJP

24 JODIYA GEN – very high turnouts, reliably BJP but turned battleground seat last 2 elections with less than 2% margins, BSP has put up a muslim candidate, tossup likely BJP

25 JAMNAGAR GEN – low to moderate turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP

26 JAMNAGAR RURAL SC – very low turnouts, flipflopped between Congress and BJP, battleground seat in 2002, tossup likely congress

27 KALAWAD GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002, tossup likely BJP

28 JAMJODHPUR GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002, tossup likely BJP

29 BHANVAD GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002 however 2004 bye election was decisive with wide margin, likely stay BJP

30 KHAMBHALIA GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002 with 2% margin, tossup likely stay BJP

31 DWARKA GEN – high turnouts congress stronghold, BJP has never won here, incumbent congress man has defected to BJP, unpredictable

32 PORBANDAR GEN – reliably BJP in the past went to congress in 2002 with Gujarat congress leader Arjun Modhvadia contesting, stay Congress

33 KUTIYANA GEN – moderate turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP

34 MANGROL GEN – moderate to high turnouts, battleground seat with less than 1% margin, tossup likely congress

35 MANAVADAR GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP

36 KESHOD SC – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, no incumbents in fray, likely stay BJP

37 TALALA GEN – very high turnouts, flip flopped between BJP and congress, battleground seat with less than 1% margin, tossup

38 SOMNATH GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped with wide margins, unpredictable

39 UNA GEN – high turnouts, congress stronghold, BJP has never won this seat, stay congress

40 VISAVADAR GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP

41 MALIYA GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped with wide margins, none of the incumbents are in fray, unpredictable

42 JUNAGADH GEN – low turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, congress has fielded a muslim candidate, likely stay BJP

43 BABRA GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP but margins have narrowed down to 2% resulting in a battleground seat in 2002,

44 LATHI GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, incumbent BJP rebel has defected to Congress, unpredictable

45 AMRELI GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP in the past, went congress in 2002 with a wide margin, likely stay Congress

46 DHARI GEN – hight turnouts battleground seat with low vote shares, NCP split the congress vote, incumbent BJP rebel switched to congress, tossup likely congress

47 KODINAR GEN – very hight turnouts, reliable BJP seat turned battleground with less than 2% margin, tossup likely stay BJP

48 RAJULA GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP with wide margins, stay BJP

49 BOTAD GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP with wide margins,

50 GADHADA SC – moderate turnouts, battleground seat that went to congress in 2002, stay congress

51 PALITANA GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat turned battleground, none of the incumbents are in fray, this seat is unpredictable

52 SIHOR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat likely stay BJP

53 KUNDLA GEN – very hight turnouts, reliable BJP seat, wide margins, likely stay BJP

54 MAHUVA GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat wide margins, BSP has put up a muslim candidate here, likely stay BJP

55 TALAJA GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, overall vote shares have dropped in 2002, none of the incumbents are in fray will likely stay BJP

56 GHOGHO GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, congress runner up from last time is running as an independent, will likely stay BJP

57 BHAVNAGAR NORTH GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, this is an odd seat with strong communist presence, last times runner up was CPM, this time atleast 3 communists in fray, congress is not contesting this seat, will likely stay BJP

58 BHAVNAGAR SOUTH GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, incumbent BJP strongman has rebelled and contesting on Uma Bharathi’s BJS ticket, this is unpredictable

154 JAMBUSAR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, stay BJP

155 VAGRA GEN – very high turnouts, Congress muslim candidate has been winning this seat last 2 elections with less than 1% margins, clearly a communally polarised seat, with BSP fielding a Muslim candidate this could be a tossup

156 BROACH GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with high margins, bjp incumbent has rebelled, contesting on BJS ticket, this one is unpredictable

157 ANKLESHWAR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with high margins, stay BJP

158 JHAGADIA ST – very high turnouts, BJP has never won this seat, JD-U holds this seat with vote shares and margins dropping, all the major parties fielding candidates from the same community this is an interesting battle and is unpredictable

159 DEDIAPADA ST – very high turnouts, has been going JD-U last 2 elections though vote shares and margins have dropped, with all parties fielding candidates from the same community this one is unpredictable

160 RAJPIPLA ST – very high turnouts, flip flopped between congress and BJP, was battleground seat in the past, went decisively to BJP in 2002, likely stay BJP

161 NIJHAR ST – moderate to high turnouts, congress has been winning this seat but vote shares and margins have been dropping, will likely remain Congress

162 MANGROL ST – moderate to high turnouts, has flip flopped between BJP and JD-U with wide margins, unpredictable

163 SONGADH ST – moderate to high turnouts, reliably voted Congress with wide margins, BJP has never won this seat, likely stay Congress

164 VYARA ST – very high turnouts, reliable Congress seat, BJP has never won this seat, wide margins, stay Congress

165 MAHUVA ST – very high turnouts, trending BJP last 2 elections with wide margins but vote shares have dropped, likely stay BJP

166 BARDOLI ST – very high turnouts, flip flopped BJP and congress, battleground seat with less than 1% margin, tossup

167 KAMREJ ST – very high turnouts, flip flopped BJP and congress, battleground seat with close fights, with none of the incumbents in fray, this one is unpredictable

168 OLPAD GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat but vote shares have dropped and turned battleground with 2% margin in 2002, with none of the incumbents in fray this one is a tossup

169 SURAT CITY NORTH GEN – moderate turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, incumbent BJP strong man has defected to Congress, this one is unpredictable

170 SURAT CITY EAST GEN – moderate turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, went congres with 2% margin last time, BSP has fielded a muslim candidate, likely tossup

171 SURAT CITY WEST GEN – low to moderate turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, none of the incumbents are in fray, likely stay BJP

172 CHORASI GEN – low turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, stay BJP

173 JALALPORE GEN – high turnouts, went BJP last 2 elections but margins have narrowed, likely stay BJP

174 NAVSARI ST – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat but margins have narrowed within 3% becoming a battleground in 2002, tossup

175 GANDEVI GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, none of the incumbents are in fray, BSP has fielded a local godman, likely remain BJP

176 CHIKHLI ST – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, went decisively to congress in 2002, likely stay Congress

177 DANGS BANSDA ST – moderate to high turnouts, reliable Congress seat, BJP has never won the seat, but vote shares have dropped, likely remain Congress

178 BULSAR GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, margins have narrowed in 2002, likely stay BJP

179 DHARAMPUR ST – high turnouts, reliably Congress last 2 elections with wide margins, likely stay Congress

180 MOTA PONDHA ST – moderate to very high turnouts, reliably congress last 2 elections with wide margins, likely stay Congress

181 PARDI ST – moderate to high turnouts, battleground seat Congress won with less than 2% margin in 2002, tossup

182 Umbergaon ST – high turnouts, battleground seat Congress won with less than 1% margin in 2002, tossup

http://offstumped.nationalinterest.in/2007/12/12/gujarat-polls-2007-phase-1-offstumped-predictions/#post-comments

Be Sociable, Share!